There are a lot of factors that go into successfully harvesting elk and deer, therefore success rates for a certain unit deserve some additional focus. An individual’s success is determined by many things, some of which he can control, some of which he cannot. But success rates for an entire population of hunters in one unit are often dictated by things beyond the control of the individual hunter, as one would assume individual luck and skill factors average out over the group. We’ll touch on some things you can do to increase your success, but let’s also look at how to put the odds in your favor and when to be concerned or when to disregard the success rate of an area. Knowing what factors increase and decrease success will help you to weigh your options more intelligently when choosing a hunting unit. Among the factors you cannot control that influence success rates over an entire unit: Roads and access, amount of wilderness, land ownership, hunter pressure, weather, timber (management, density and species), seasonal variations, game density. Things you can control that affect your individual success: using the wind, local knowledge, balancing speed and patience, physical fitness, determination, shooting skill, harvest preferences, and knowledge of how to maximize your odds to put yourself into position to succeed.
Land ownership within an area is something you cannot control, but need to be aware of when selecting a unit. National forest and BLM heavy areas often have private inholdings along the main creeks and even some of the higher meadows. Narrow drainages in private hands rarely create much of a refuge for elk and deer, but higher elevation holdings can create problems. There is nothing more frustrating to see than elk or deer feeding right next to a property boundary. So save yourself the hassle and hunt somewhere where private lands cannot create large refuges. Low elevation ranch lands can have the same effect, but typically only during later season hunts. If you are considering a late season hunt, make sure there is some kind BLM or state land that can be hunted below the forest service if the snows are heavy enough to drive the game much below 8,000 feet. Areas with large amounts of private land also tend to have high success rates. Be careful when perusing the stats. If an area (say Colorado’s unit 13) has high success, it may just be indicative of the land ownership, not of the game present and public hunting opportunities.
Roads are another important influence on success. Roads obviously allow hunters to spread out, creating pressure over a wider area on the game. Having only a few roads in an area creates bottlenecks of heavy pressure and then large voids where the majority of hunters are unwilling to hike to. Well maintained roads, attract more hunters. Poorly maintained, high clearance roads weed out a lot hunters. When looking at a map, if a road has a county number or name, not just a Forest Service or BLM number, it is likely a maintained road. We need these to access our hunting grounds, but do not expect anything but heavy pressure within a mile of that road. Typically, the higher the road density, the greater the success. Conversely, areas with large amounts of federally designated wilderness often have low success rates. That’s not because there aren’t any game animals in these places, but it’s because few people have the means to access them beyond the average foot hunter conducting day hunts from somewhere near the wilderness boundary. Once again, wilderness creates a bottleneck of hunters near the boundaries accessible by road and marked trailhead, and then refuges are created in the distant back country. Penetrating beyond four miles (as the crow flies) during a single day on foot, then returning to camp is about the maximum for the above average hunter. So when looking at the statistics of a unit with federally designated wilderness, one should expect to see lower success rates due to access difficulties created around the wilderness boundaries and the roads leading to them. If you are willing and able to hunt the backcountry, then you should place a lower emphasis on the unit-wide success rate, as they do not reflect your determination. But you may also want to compare that unit with other like units that are wilderness dominated.
Along the same line of thinking, you should pay attention to areas where the timber has been managed. Logging creates roads, sometimes those roads are open, sometimes they are not (look at your map), but it also creates better habitat conditions and more “huntable” land. Clear cuts, thinning operations, and even the road building process encourage game to feed on more palatable forage species, and also allow hunters to see them, reach them and retrieve them. Some places have had no real timber management, but fires may have put the timber into an earlier successional stage (first grasses, then brush species, then small shade intolerant timber species like aspen, then pines, then shade intolerant species like spruces and firs), with more brush species or aspens instead of thick stands of spruces, pines or firs. Early succession timber stages tend to increase success rates, as once again, the game is more “huntable”. Few hunters are competent thick timber still-hunters, so areas where black timber dominates often have very poor success rates, similar to archery success rates. Lower elevation or earlier succession plant species such as scrub oaks, increase success rates where they are present. This is partly due to the fact that elk and deer feel comfortable in such brush, but are quite visible to hunters after the leaves have fallen.
Game density of course influences success rates. Density, when stated, usually refers to the animals per square mile of the entire unit. Obviously game is not evenly distributed, but is concentrated in pockets, devoid in some areas, and sparsely scattered in other areas. Your preseason mission should be to determine those concentration pockets, but before then, you must select a unit to hunt. Areas with higher elk or deer densities usually have higher success rates because even when not hunting in the major concentration areas, there are simply higher numbers of scattered animals to randomly bump into or feed out into a meadow. When trying to put the odds in your favor, the more animals per square mile, the better the chance of success. Seems obvious. That’s why the Colorado’s Flat Tops are swarming with hunters. The success is high partly because there are a lot of animals, the timber is huntable, there are sufficient roads, and pressure bumps the numerous animals from one hunter to the next.
Which brings us to our next factor: pressure. Pressured animals move more than unpressured animals. When game is on the move, you are much more likely to encounter it. If game can bed down at midmorning and feel secure, you will have a very difficult to time finding that game. But if other hunters are constantly moving them around, it enhances the success of all hunters in the area. Pressure can be a necessary evil, but the units with low pressure are obviously more enjoyable for those seeking solace. But they tend to have lower success rates. Extremely low pressure can have the opposite effect, as the game may not be forced into nocturnal feeding patterns or is unconcerned with the presence of humans. This extreme is typically only seen in the trophy units, but the point is, is that there is a point where really low pressure increases success. Above that point, you have extremely low success rates as there aren’t enough hunters to move the game, and there is just enough pressure to cause the animals to take on nocturnal feeding habits.
Weather is one of the most talked about factors regarding hunting success. But it can be a double edged sword. Cold weather and deep snows may make for elk and deer feeding during daylight hours, sunning on south faces, and easy tracking conditions. But it also makes the hunting grounds difficult to access, discourages many hunters from hunting all day long, decreases the number of hunters in the field, increases equipment failures, and sometimes the snows are too deep on the public lands, forcing the game down to the private lands too quickly. I tried to correlate weather patterns to 1st season elk success in a unit I was planning on hunting in October of 2009 and wrote this piece in September of 2009:
“As most of you know, I'm kind of a data freak, so while a buddy and I are still wrestling with exactly which unit to hunt this year (our 1st season tags are good for more than one unit), I decided to do some historical weather data analysis to help explain the variability of success. Some of it is kind of obvious, but it's nice to have data to back up your statements.
Weather Underground has some really good historical data, including day to day looks at the weather for as far back as you can go, but I just took the last 10 years because that's all I have for success rates. I looked at the periods between September 19 and October 18, because twice in the last 10 years 1st season ended on the 18th and I figured Sept 19 would give me a full month out from the end of the season.
Variables I put into a regression analysis to correlate with success:
Temperature: Average low prior to opener, minimum low prior to opener, Sept 19-30 low, average low 7/5/3/1 day prior to opener, low temp on the opener plus days 2 and 3, days below 32 (at the airport where the data is recorded) prior to opener, and the season average low temp.
Precipitation: Total precip prior to opener, max precip event prior to opener, September total preicipitation, precip 7/5/3/1 day prior to the opener, precip on the opener plus day 2 and the total between those two days, season total precip and number of days of precipitation before the opener.
I also looked at how hunter numbers and the date of opening affected success.
Basically, none of the analyses returned anything significant, but there were some very weak correlations. Sort of significant is the lack of anything solid to hang your hat on regarding weather.
The closest I could come was (and if you know anything about stats, the closest I could come were r-values around .2 and F-stats around 1) with these variables in descending order of significance:
Season average minimum temp
Precipitation 1 day prior to opener
Opening date
Average Low prior to opener
Everything else had an r-value below .1. So in reality, the most significant conclusion I could make was weather has very little do with success over the whole unit. Common sense and conventional wisdom say otherwise, so I'm still just as confused as when I started. I guess I can't account for human dimensions such as people not being able to reach their spot due to weather, or hunters hunting somewhere else trying to anticipate the weather or things of that nature.”
So disregarding what the numbers told me from analyzing just one unit and the events that may affect the 1st rifle season, it seems logical to assume that an area with many good roads and with low elevation public ground would have higher success than areas with few and poor roads and very little low elevation ground to hunt. Also, in Colorado, where there is 4 rifle seasons (but this applies to other states like Arizona and New Mexico, and to lesser degree states with a single long rifle season), one can examine how success changes over time. At the statewide level, Colorado’s rifle seasons during the 2008 season (but this pattern applies to most warm years) went from averaging 31% in 1st season, plummeting to 16% in second season, to a low of 14% in 3rd season, then back up to 18% in 4th season. Deer are the opposite, with success increasing over the seasons. This is at the statewide level (not just the 105 units we track, and is for either sex), and is typical of the past 5 years, but at the unit level, some places buck that trend. Here’s where you’ll want to know how put information to good use. When selecting a unit to hunt, it is also important to know when to hunt that unit. We’ve made it easy for you to examine how success in that unit changes over the 4 rifle season (but also archery and muzzleloader, though that is comparing apples to oranges).
The other stat that we offer, which is frequently disregarded is the average deviation of success. This statistic helps to expose those areas where weather likely plays a major role in some aspect of huntability. It’s very difficult to make a broad generalization as to what is being affected, but since elk populations are relatively static (deer populations fluctuate much more due to weather), land ownership, timber management and successional stage, roads and pressure patterns don’t change much on a year to year basis, it seems the only thing that isn’t consistent is the weather. Weather could be affecting water sources, the elevation at which game is located, the ease at which they are tracked or found by glassing, or access to the hunting grounds, but it is difficult to make a blanket statement regarding a whole state in respect to how weather changes affect huntability. Nevertheless, looking at the average deviation of success in a unit (and amongst seasons in Colorado) will show you areas which fluctuate greatly and are difficult to depend on if making plans far in advance. For instance, unit 24 in Colorado has one of the highest average deviations in the state during 4th season over the past 5 years. The average fluctuation (+ or -) from the mean was over 20 percentage points! The past 5 years either sex success was 22, 6, 27, 81 and 12%. It’s very difficult to say what about the weather conditions created that 81% year and what created the 6% year, but do you want plan your hunt for a unit where success can vary that wildly? So pay attention to this statistic. We all spend a lot of money, time and effort planning and trying to put odds in our favor and control what variables we can. But the weather is way beyond our control and we can’t always know what effect it will have on our elk or deer hunt. If you can be flexible and well equipped, a unit with a high average deviation may not be so bad for you. But for most hunters, it is wisest to hunt somewhere more reliable.
Those were all things you can’t control that affect success. But you can control what you do with this information by how you emphasize success and the deviation of success in determining where and how you hunt. Other things that you can control and ought to spend the offseason improving are: local knowledge, your shooting skills, physical fitness, your mental state, attention to wind direction and knowing when to stop and glass, slow your movements or when to speed up.
Scouting will improve your local knowledge of an area, but for many people that is just not possible. Those not willing or able to do so must accept the disadvantage they are at, but can do small things to improve their chances of success from afar. Remote scouting through the use of maps and aerial photos will take the “newness” of the area out when you finally do arrive. Knowing in your mind’s eye what the area looks like and where features that you’ve studied are in relation to your current position without having to study a map will make you more comfortable and willing to travel further than the average hunter who does not know what lies over the next ridge. Local knowledge also entails being familiar with the local vegetation. This is a weakness of most hunters, and one of the things that separates biologists from the average hunter. Knowing what the animals are eating and where those plants are found is helpful when hunting less pressured animals (and not all animals are heavily pressured). Consider spending some time at your local University’s library (if they have a wildlife or ecology department) reading over some of the diet studies that have been conducted in the past. These studies can also be a good way of finding areas that have traditionally good hunting by paying attention to where the study was conducted. If that degree of study isn’t for you, at least consider picking up a plant ID book and getting to know some of the more important shrubs, then calling either a biologist or professor to get to know which ones may be preferred forage in your area. Not all shrubs have the same food value to an animal, and elk and deer diets are frequently different.
Regarding shooting skills, if you can’t hit a moving animal or at least cannot make a quick decision to shoot or don’t shoot, you probably shouldn’t be hunting in areas with lots of black timber. If you consider yourself a long range specialist, you should be hunting areas with good vantage points. Your shooting skills and preferences should be taken into account when selecting an area, as not all places have the terrain and vegetation that is right for you.
No one wants to be told to get fit, but being fit will help your endurance and your mental state while hunting. If you are completely physically exhausted after day 1, how are you going to get out of bed for day 2? I don’t want to be a nag about this, but you know whether or not you are in the condition you expect of yourself, and whether that condition limits your hunting success. This goes with physical fitness, but those who are mentally tough, willing to go the extra mile, willing to do what other hunters won’t are those who will increase their chances of success. You probably won’t kill an elk while sleeping in camp, and in some instances you’ve wasted time by going back to it with daylight remaining. If you aren’t comfortable walking to camp or to a hunting area in the dark, you are at a disadvantage. If you won’t shoot an elk at dusk 4 miles into the backcountry, why are you even there? You should know your limitations, but the most successful hunters likely have the fewest limitations holding them back from their goals.
Other things that have a great impact on your individual success is knowing how to play the wind. Understanding thermals and paying attention to wind direction is one of the best ways to negate a game animal’s greatest advantage over you. We all know game animals have a difficult time picking out someone who is standing still, so be careful when you are hunting. Every time you hit an opening, at the bare minimum, remain still, and glass the edges of the opening before exposing yourself to anything that may be watching it. Experience will teach you when to slow down and when you can risk speeding up, but also having a good feel for when to sit down and glass, and when to be patient along a trail will also help your success.
One other thing you can change is your selectivity regarding trophy quality. A good hunter who is happy shooting the first legal animal will likely have much higher success than a mediocre hunter with high expectations and is willing to turn down legal animals. For many hunters, this is a natural change over time, first just wanting to harvest a legal animal, then the desire to only take the best, then not caring whether one harvests at all, just focusing on the enjoyment in the field. But one must be comfortable with where they stand among these different mentalities in order to enjoy time afield. Harvesting animals you are unhappy with, or turning down animals you’d actually like to harvest, then not being happy with going home empty handed are surefire ways to have an unsuccessful hunt. Know yourself, and know whether you are hunting in the right area for yourself and your mentality.
Good luck out there
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