While a lot has been said on how to read the preference point requirements or how to determine your draw odds to see which units you have a chance of drawing with you first choice, we haven’t spent a lot of time on how to use your second and later choices. The following is mostly focused on Colorado, as that is where the most interest is, but I will also cover some of the other states and how your draw strategies might change due to their processes.
First you must have an understanding of the draw process in the state you are applying for. In every state, you only gain points if you do not draw with your first choice. Many states offer a mixed or hybrid style draw, with a majority of tags going to those with the most preference points and 20-25% being allotted in a random draw for the first choice. States like Wyoming, Oregon, and California do this. Some states work on a bonus point system, which increase, but do not guarantee your drawing a tag if you have the most points. Essentially you have your name in the “hat” more than once with a bonus point. Montana, Arizona, Nevada and Utah are bonus point states. New Mexico and Idaho do not have a preference system, so the draw odds are equal for everyone. Colorado has a true preference system and a hybrid system. The hybrid system is only for a handful of trophy units that traditionally take over 10 resident points and is similar to the mixed systems of Wyoming, Oregon and California, except that applicants must have 5 points to be eligible.
The vast majority of Colorado’s tags are in the preference system. Those who have the most points are guaranteed the tag, those with the minimum number of points need to know how to read the draw odds and know what their actual chance of drawing the tag is. On the next Colorado update, I will include this in the data sets. The only way to guarantee yourself a tag is to have more than the minimum points required as stated on the preference point report. To determine your actual odds, you will need to look at the hunt recap summary. If a tag requires 1 point, and you only have 1 point, you are not guaranteed the tag. To determine your odds, look at how the tags are allotted between residents and nonresidents. Subtract from the number of tags available to you the number of applicants with more than the minimum number of points required to determine the remainder of tags available to the minimum point applicants. Let’s say there are 125 tags allocated to residents, and 75 resident applicants have two or more points. That leaves 50 tags available to applicants with 1 point. If there are 250 applicants with 1 point, your odds are 50/250=0.2 or 20%. If the odds are that low you need to have a backup plan with your second choice, or be planning to use OTC tags instead.
If you apply for a unit where you have fewer than the minimum number of points required, you are throwing away your chance at a tag with your first choice. Do this only if your intention is to earn a point. I believe it is advantageous to apply for a hunt rather than a preference point on the off chance that there may be less demand for whatever reason that year and you actually draw. But if you don’t want that hunt, do not apply for it. If your intention is to hunt with an OTC tag while you gather points, then it may make sense to apply for the preference point instead with your first choice.
If there is a chance that you will not draw with your first choice, then you need to know how to use your second and later choices. By looking at the drawing report, you will be able to see which units do not completely draw out with the first choice. For starters, all units that require preference points will draw out with the first choice. When there is a very small number of tags drawn with a second choice, make sure that those are not just landowner tags that you cannot draw. The report will show how many residents, nonresidents and landowners draw with which choices. So make sure you are looking at the correct column. Any tag that goes to leftovers will be guaranteed with a second choice. Those tags are marked with an asterisk in the Big Game regs, or have will have a number under the “current balance” heading in the draw report.
Use the same idea with 3rd or 4th choices. Look to see which tags are still available with a 3rd or 4th choice or leftover. If you are trying to maximize value and avoid the pressure of OTC tags (they aren’t all bad), find the tags that draw out with the third and 4th choices. But, if you are doing this as a group, without a group application, you run the risk of your party having different tags. So do a group application if you are counting on someone else drawing the same tag as you. The vast majority of tags that are available in 3rd or 4th choice are also available as leftovers. That is not the case with 2nd choice tags. Because there are no OTC tags for deer in Colorado, I spend the most time wringing my hands over 2nd and later choices for deer.
More often than not though it only makes sense to apply for a first choice and second choice tag, and then checking the box for the leftover draw so you can coordinate efforts with other party members. By learning how to read the drawing report, you will know which tags are available in the leftover draw. Very few people take advantage of the leftover draw, but some good tags are available by this method. If you want two tags, you will need to wait until the leftovers go on sale after the main and leftover draws. Have your plan laid out ahead of time and know which tags are available before you even attempt to purchase one.
And if you have any questions, don’t be afraid to ask. This isn’t rocket science, but it may seem like a foreign language to those who aren’t used to western style application processes.
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