Illustrated Guide to Unit Selection

This is the part of the script and illustrations to a series of videos that we are working on. What I’d like to attempt to do here is to show all of what goes into planning a successful hunt or three. And rather than sit on this for a few months until the video is complete, I’d like it out there for folks to be able to think as we head into hunting season. It’s my plan to do follow up pieces to this with remote scouting, on the ground scouting and hunting season updates throughout the 2010 season:

For me, there is no offseason. Hunting season does not begin in the fall, it is a yearlong procession of research, applications and scouting seasons, all culminating in the hunt. I put a lot of effort into this process; have developed some different ways of doing my research to put myself and my hunting partners on the ground in productive country, and would like to show how it is we are able to routinely harvest in new country every year. Because we are unit hoppers, we never get to intimately know an area the way someone would who has hunted a specific drainage for the past 20 years. I don’t find that to be a handicap, in fact, I feel that you are missing out by not exploring new country whenever possible. When you are wed to a specific unit, you stay with it through the good years and bad years, never feeling comfortable with the idea of trying a new location, not knowing how your wisdom will translate, and not knowing the specific movement habits of game in a new spot. I accept that I will never know have a complete understanding of the unique movements of game in every area, but I feel that knowledge and wisdom gained through hunting many places will apply to most situations I will encounter. While I may eventually settle down to hunting a few units routinely, by being flexible and keeping my eye on the population trends, I am able to hunt more places at their peak, and I don’t ever feel “stuck” with the same old, same old.

Unit selection is all about putting the odds in your favor. Most elk and deer hunters throughout the west go home empty handed more often than not. On average, elk hunters in Colorado harvest about 20% of the time, and deer hunters are successful about 40% of the time. Average isn’t good enough for me; I want to have the chance to harvest every time I go out. To do that, I feel it is advantageous to put yourself in more productive country. But how do you identify those areas? What do I look for when selecting a unit? After I’ve selected a unit to hunt, then how do I go about narrowing down the options for selecting a specific region to hunt? This script will attempt to show you the statistics and research that I looked at for this year and then show you the sign, habitat and terrain features that will encourage or discourage me from hunting in a specific area. Then hopefully, we’ll be able to put it all together for a successful hunt.

To begin the 2010 application season, my partners and I all had differing amounts of preference points and hunting preferences. We are all Colorado transplants, and so we do not have deep connections to any particular area within the state. We are mostly rifle hunters, but we also dabble in muzzleloading and archery now and then to expand our hunting opportunities. In 2009, very few of us were successful in drawing our first choice deer and elk tags, so we mostly hunted on second choices, OTC tags and leftovers. We had an up and down year with a few blown chances sticking in our collective craws making the season seem not quite as successful as we had hoped. As a group, our deer preference points were all over the map, with one of us having 0 points, one having 1 point, 2 having 2 points, one having 4 points, and two with 5 points. Only one of the 3 with a high deer point count had a plan for his points, the others were just blindly accumulating. For elk, we had fewer points as a group, with one having 5 points, but the rest of us had either one or two points each.

So our first order of business was to sit down and have a Meeting of the Mighty Hunters to map out our plans back in February. This was already past the application deadline for Wyoming elk, but none of us seemed interested in attempting an elk hunt Wyoming this year. For the last couple of years we have been going to Wyoming for a doe antelope hunt, so our first set of deadlines was going to be March 15th. New Mexico elk was on Ryan’s radar, and I decided to apply again for Nevada mule deer, as the last cheap and easy western hunt left now that New Mexico requires the full fee up front. But other than those hunts, the majority of our efforts were going to be focused on our home state of Colorado.

As with every group, some take a more active role in the planning process than others, with the less active members being more amenable to whatever the planners decide on. First order of business and that which most of us plan our year around is the elk hunting. In 2009, the main group hunt was a 1st rifle cow hunt in and alongside a wilderness area. We also had a 3rd rifle OTC bull elk hunt for 3 of us, while others hunted muzzleloader and archery seasons if they hunted elk a second time. Ryan had just taken up muzzleloading in 2009 and had an awesome experience with elk bugling in his face. As a dedicated waterfowler, the game calling aspect also appealed to him. To me, l liked the idea of having first crack at an elk with a firearm, and love mid September in the Rockies. We were also able to get more guys to commit to a backcountry elk hunt in September as opposed to October or November. Thankfully, we have access to Adam’s horses, which would make packing in a lot easier for all of us. Still, not everyone in the group was willing to commit to this hunt, but enough of us were willing to give it a shot.

Previously, I wasn’t willing to consider muzzleloading for cow elk until 2010 when the regulations changed. The previous statewide muzzleloader cow tag was a List A tag. But now that the statewide tag had been broken up into numerous units, with those tags that were List B for rifle hunts, now being list B for muzzleloading, it made it so that if I drew a cow tag, we wouldn’t lose an opportunity at a bull with the OTC tags or a leftover. While we were sold on muzzleloader season for our elk applications, we were well aware that our success rates would be much lower than a first rifle season tag. Traditionally, here in Colorado, 1st rifle season stands head and shoulders above the other seasons in terms of success rates. Of the 106 units I follow closely 1st season has approximately twice the success rates of the OTC seasons. Part of that is due to the common either sex tags, part of it is due to the fact that the elk have not been bothered for several weeks, and have not been run off onto the lower elevation private lands. But as you can see in the graph, 1st and 4th seasons are generally your best bets to kill an elk. These are 5 year averages reflecting either sex success rates for archery, muzzleloader, 1st and 4th rifle season, but bull only success rates for 2nd and 3rd seasons.


But where to go? I’m not the kind of guy who’ll chase a hot tip, and I try to put the experiences of others into perspective when listening to their advice. And most guys who’ll suggest a place to hunt have no perspective, and don’t really know what’s out there. Looking over data will help put things into perspective. And while it can be manipulated, I trust it more than the biased opinions of most hunters.
The unit had to be List B, so that those who drew cow tags could still hunt a bull. We also wanted a high density elk unit with low pressure. I want to hunt in units where I at least have a solid chance at shooting what I consider a trophy bull, basically anything approaching 300 inches. I have a sliding trophy scale, depending on the circumstances of the hunt; how many days I have left, what caliber of bulls I am seeing, what caliber I expect to see, and how many, if any elk I’ve already seen. The stat that I’m most willing to compromise on is success rate, as there are so many variables that affect a success rate that I feel it does not accurately reflect the way I hunt. Some of the guys were going to only put in for cow tags as a second choice so they could continue to accumulate preference points, but we were totally unsure of how the new muzzleloading elk units would draw out. There were no draw odds, and no tag quotas announced ahead of the draw, so it was going to be a gamble.

Anyway, our unit possibilities boiled down to the following units, some of which we had hunted in the past, others were new to us: Units that ranked highly on my lists that we had hunted recently and were considering returning to A, B, C, D, E, F and units that we had not hunted recently but were very interested in W, X, Y, and Z. Included on this list were some units that had previously had limited muzzleloader tags, but since we were unsure of how the breakup of the statewide tag would affect tag demand, we gave them some consideration too. All of these units had significant roadless area, most of which was federally designated wilderness.



As you can see in the chart, unit X has a significant elk density advantage over the others, and was a unit we had had our eye on for the past several years as the elk population had been growing.

Unit C, also has a substantial elk population, we were very familiar with it, but it was basically considered a raghorn unit, as you can see in the % of the bulls being harvested there last year. In fact, while only 30% of the bulls had been harvested out of that unit in 2009, that is considered a down year for that unit, as typical harvest percentages are in the mid to upper 40% range, leaving very few older bulls in the population. However, while Unit Y was a little below average in elk density, it is the top trophy potential unit, right next to unit X.



When you examine the number of elk per hunter in these units, once again unit X comes out on top, with only unit B coming in a close second. But unit B, which we hunted last year, doesn’t come close in terms of trophy potential and has half the elk density.



We do however like the extremely low hunter density in unit B as compared to unit X, but it’s not like X was particularly bad. When we hunted Unit C a few years ago, the hunter density was a real turn off for us, despite the fact we all harvested elk. Unit Y came up as another good possibility for low hunter density and good numbers of elk per hunter.



The main downsides to both units X and Y were the success rates, indicating difficult to access elk populations, especially compared to units C, E and Z.



Still, since we had decided to backcountry camp this year’s muzzleloader hunt, we were willing to disregard the lower success rates that are typical of units where a significant portion of the area is wilderness. We also knew we had to step up our scouting efforts in order to find good populations to hunt during muzzleloader season, as we wouldn’t be able to up and move very easily during the limited amount of time we’d have to hunt. But our decision had become a no-brainer at this point. With the expanding elk population in Unit X, which still wasn’t on the tongues of many hunters, we had to hunt this unit while it was still at its peak. Unit X is tops in nearly every category and the mediocre success rates could be explained away by the poor access that we could overcome through backcountry camping.

So that solved one of our primary elk hunt. Myself and Adam would put in for the bull tag as a first choice but were unsure how many points it would take to draw it. Ryan, Mike and Jason would apply for the cow tags with a second choice; while Matt and a friend of his from Florida, Chuck, would bow hunt the unit. We all applied separately, no group applications.

That left our deer applications for the other major group hunt. Having two or more resident points really opens up a lot of excellent possibilities. Determining a season can be almost as important as determining a unit. For us, primitive weapons hunts for deer hold little interest, but the early, high country rifle hunts have a lot of appeal. When you look at Western Colorado as a whole, there is little reason to spend the points on 4th rifle season, and the early rifle season is a terrible value. Although we still remain interested in the early rifle hunt, it would also conflict with our muzzleloader hunt this year.



However, when you look at some of my top rated units, you’ll see a few that truly represent excellent value. No one in the group had any special attraction to previously hunted units, and in fact hadn’t been happy with the ones we had hunted in the past, and had not drawn any tags since we had recently been following the data as closely as we do now. Jason and I had applied last year to unit A, but did not get drawn. However, a customer of mine had an excellent hunt in the same area we intended to hunt. I was open to a variety of units and seasons for 2010, but really dislike the amount of pressure that the 2nd season sees due to the number of OTC elk hunters. Traditionally, 2nd season has nearly twice the hunter pressure that 3rd season sees, and the deer success was lower. So it had to be a truly stellar unit to interest us in a 2nd season deer hunt. The units we were looking at for this year also had to require 2 points or less so most of us would have a chance to draw.

Unit A 3rd season, Unit B 3rd season, Unit C 2nd season, Unit D 2nd season and Unit E 3rd season, were the only units given much consideration. This was not going to be a meat hunt for most of us, we were after a quality experience. In the group, our trophy standards are all over the place, with some guys willing to shoot the first buck they see, others willing to be a little more patient for a buck. The unit also had to be OTC for elk, so those who only drew cow tags in muzzleloader season could come along on a bull hunt. Also, we had another friend, Tom, who wasn’t up for the backcountry muzzleloader hunt with his son, but would be more willing to jump in on an OTC bull hunt. He would be hunting a unit we had good success in for 1st season a few years ago.

Each of these 5 units had something going for them, and we knew that whichever we selected would be a slight compromise. But we had some incredible options to mull over. First, looking at the deer densities, unit E was the obvious standout, and is one of the top deer density units in the state.



But Units A and B were not too far behind in deer density.

One of the real downsides to Unit E 3rd season, which is even worse in worse in 2nd season, is the hunter density.



So, negating Unit E 3rd season, we looked at A and B for 3rd season, which were the next highest deer densities, and you’ll see both have low hunter densities. In terms of trophy Potential, Unit B 3rd season, begins to separate itself from A 3rd season.



However, unit C has excellent trophy potential. But the real downside there is the low deer density. Also, Unit C has a poor success rate. While that normally wouldn’t be the deciding factor, it did play a small role in this decision.



Of the last major statistical categories that I decided to look, Bucks per Hunter, Unit D 2nd season really stood out from the pack:



As I said, this was a tough decision. All of these units were ranked in the top 15 to 20 units in 2nd or 3rd season, and amongst the top values. The first to be eliminated was unit E 3rd season. It ranked the worst of these units, but the incredible deer density kept it in play in the discussions. Unit D 2nd season is the top ranked second season deer hunt, but because it required one more point than the other units, it would eliminate some of our hunters from drawing, and those with the minimum number of points, might not actually draw. So that left Units A, B and C. Unit C 2nd season only had the high trophy potential going for it, everything else looked poor in comparison with units A and B. And unit C 3rd season required more points than most of us had. So, in reality it came down to unit A versus unit B in 3rd season. Unit B was ranked slightly above A in our rankings, but because A was so close to our elk muzzleloader elk area, we had knowledge of the unit, the success rate was higher and the landownership pattern and terrain more conducive to our hunting styles, we decided to compromise and go with A. A did not lead any category, but was still an excellent unit.

Deciding on which units to apply for in New Mexico and Nevada went through similar processes. When we first started antelope hunting in Wyoming, we went on the recommendation of an area by a friend of ours. Productive hunting, and research showing we’d have to travel a lot further to greatly improve our hunting has had us staying put in the unit we know and like. Plus the tags are easy to get.

To be continued next time with the draw results, remote scouting and spring scouting…

Last Minute Leftover Tag Prep

Wyoming’s leftovers are currently on sale, Montana’s go on sale Monday the 9th, Idaho is presently conducting its second chance drawing and Colorado’s leftovers go on sale Tuesday the 10th. It’s not too late to do a little last minute prep and scouting before committing to a tag. As I mentioned last week in “Why is this tag a Leftover?”, not all leftovers are junk. But some are more headache than they are worth.

So let’s walk through a few steps we should consider before purchasing a tag. As a data guy, the first thing I’ll look into is how the unit stacks up in my rankings. Everyone has different priorities, but for me personally, I want above average game densities, solid trophy potential if it’s a buck or bull tag, and low hunting pressure. I will sacrifice success rates, except in the case of meat hunts. But if a unit has unusually low success, I will want to try to figure out why, and whether or not it is something I can overcome by hunting smarter or hunting harder than the average.

The next thing I do is look at the landownership pattern. Checkerboards and small parcels of public land work for me for antelope and some deer hunting, but not for elk hunting. In heavily private areas that have tempted me to look into their tags for whatever reason, I will also look at any public access programs like Wyoming’s Hunter Management and Walk In Access areas, Montana’s Block Management, Idaho’s Access Yes! and Colorado’s Big Game Walk In Access Areas.

Next I’ll do some quick remote scouting of the publicly accessible areas on Google Earth, to make sure they look like proper habitat from the air. I’m not concerned with where exactly to hunt at this point, but I want to know that there is the kind of habitat that looks appropriate for the game of interest and works for my hunting styles.

After that, I’ll try to do a quick drive to and around the unit. Try to schedule your drive to be out during peak game hours. If the place I want to look at is 4 or 5 hours away, I will be leaving in the middle of the night to be on the roads at dawn. If that’s not possible, be sure to be driving through your most likely areas by dusk. This tactic is better for deer and elk, as antelope are more active mid to late morning and late afternoon. But I want to see that there is at least some game. If I have time I’ll hike around looking for sign that I mentioned in this scouting article a while back:

http://wildlife.state.co.us/Hunting/ElkHuntingUniversity/EHULessons/EHUScoutTips.htm

When doing that I’m just trying to get an idea of relative animal densities. How does this area compare to others that I’ve hunted? Is there more or less browsing pressure on the plants than I’m used to? Can I see hedged shrubs along the winter range areas, indicating high winter concentrations of game? What about fresh tracks in the road and along the cut banks of dirt roads? It doesn’t take much to get me excited, and validate my decision to hunt an area, but it’s best to have some perspective. If you don’t know what a lot of sign looks like, head out to one of the higher game density reputation areas in your state(or take a look at my stats), then compare it to wherever else you’re considering hunting. Montana and Colorado hunters, you still have one more weekend day to do this.

It’s also important to know what kind of a chance you have of getting the tag you are interested in. Are there only a handful of tags available? If that’s the case, be ready with a backup plan. This year in Colorado, there are only 8 public land heavy units with rifle buck deer tags available. That’s as few as I remember ever seeing, so you’ll want to have several back up plans if you’re eyeing buck deer tags. Guys who have several members of a party going for a small number of leftover tags have additional issues. If you can’t pick up the leftover tags with all of your friends at once in the same place, make sure you stay in touch with everybody in the party. You’ll want to know if the tags have sold out and you’ll want to be prepared to purchase some sort of secondary license for that area if you intend to go anyway. That might be a cow elk tag or doe deer tag instead of a buck or bull tag. If you know members of your party can’t or won’t be first in line for that limited tag, you might have to think more seriously about a unit with more leftovers so you are all more likely to get a tag.

Additionally, if you have to return a tag before you can purchase a new one, do that before leftover day (that means Monday at the latest for Colorado hunters). You’ll have to that at a Division of Wildlife Office, which is the last place you’ll want to be on leftover day.

For Colorado’s mad rush on leftover tags, another good tactic is to head to less well known and less well stocked hunting stores for your leftover tag. Sportsmen’s Warehouse and Wal Mart are just as bad, if not worse than the Division of Wildlife Offices. Frequently, the counter help at big box stores are not aware of List A versus List B and List C rules, so if you see someone struggling as they are continuously rejected, don’t be afraid to let them know what’s wrong with their tag selections. Every year I see someone try buy more bull or buck tags than they are allowed, or try to buy a List A cow or doe tag in addition to the buck or bull tag. Also, there’s no need to buy your OTC tags while there are so many people in line. Those are unlimited.

You still have plenty of time to scout, but you should start getting ready to commit to a unit, if you haven’t already done so.
Good luck out there

Why is this Tag a Leftover?

With application season pretty much behind us, leftovers becoming available and hunting season just around the corner, most of us have our plans pretty well fleshed out. However, many of you may still be contemplating the leftover lists, looking for an opportunity to hunt.
I’ll mostly talk about the Wyoming and Colorado leftovers here, but the thought processes should apply elsewhere.
More often than not there’s a reason tags go unclaimed in the draw, and it’s not always because it’s a bad tag to have. But you need to do your research BEFORE you buy a tag. It all boils down to supply and demand, but we need to look into both variables to see why the tag has leftovers, and whether or not it’s worth having.
On the supply side, units with high game populations frequently issue a lot of tags. So just because the tags are available, it does not mean no one wants them. It’s just that there’s a tremendous number available. Here in Colorado, a unit with one of the highest deer densities and excellent trophy potential is available as leftovers most years. Areas with population problems often make it to leftovers. Colorado’s top elk density unit has tags available in leftovers for nearly every season. Areas that are just in a population maintenance mode, are rarely as good for a meat hunt as those whose populations are above objectives.
Sometimes there will be areas that traditionally to draw out, with a fairly steady number of applicants. But if the managing game department suddenly increases the tags, the public may not have been prepared and the unit will go undersubscribed. Check out the draw stats for both this year and last year. Was there an increase in the number of permits? That might indicate a growing population for you to take advantage of.
One of the big factors affecting demand would include public access. This is easy enough to figure out with a simple atlas or map showing public land ownership and the major county roads. The antelope tags I buy in Wyoming every year are always available as leftovers, but Wyoming Game and Fish discourages people from purchasing tags for that unit with their asterisk, meaning public access is poor. It may not be full of contiguous blocks of public land, but there’s enough, especially when you include Wyoming’s Walk In Access and Hunter Management Areas. And don’t overlook checkerboarded areas for deer and antelope hunting. My favorite parcel for antelope is just a single 640 acre (1 sq mile) section of BLM land. It always has a large herd of antelope on it after 10 am.
Wilderness and difficult terrain conspire to discourage many hunters. If you’ve purchased my full data sets, you’ll see that some of the best units are wilderness-heavy and/or incredibly steep, rugged country. In Wyoming, that’s a major issue for nonresidents, because you can’t hunt a designated wilderness without a guide, but it shouldn’t hold back a hardcore hunter in other states. Also, look closely to see what proportion of a unit is wilderness. Is there still enough country left to hunt outside of the wilderness area? Most hunters just don’t want to fool with backcountry camping. But if you’re willing to, you’ll open up tremendous possibilities for yourself. Road closures to popular areas also discourage some hunters who had traditionally hunted in a place they could drive to.
But, as often as not, a tag goes undersubscribed for good reason. Frequently the game numbers are way down, and even the locals are giving up on hunting the area. While most hunters don’t pour over the statistics, long term trends of poor success and infrequent game sightings go noticed eventually. Heavily pressured areas take a toll on those who are intolerant of “pumpkin patches”. Despite an areas popularity, few hunters dream about hunting elbow to elbow with other strangers. But tolerance to hunting pressure is relative. If you’re used to heavily hunted areas in your home state, what locals consider heavy pressure may not bother you at all.
Sometimes, it’s just the season that hunters don’t like. Here in Colorado, 2nd season deer tags and 4th season elk tags aren’t very popular; leaving some high quality tags available in places that you wouldn’t think would have leftovers. 3rd season is very popular for deer hunters, but low on most elk hunter’s priorities.
New hunts and new boundaries also create confusion or poor awareness amongst hunters. This year, with 3rd rifle season in Colorado being extended to a full nine days, you’d think more people would know about it. But many of the folks I’ve talked to had no idea. Also, keep your eye out for new late or early season opportunities that are outside of the traditional hunting seasons. Because game departments tweak their seasons and hunting opportunities each year, new hunts pop up without the knowledge of many long time hunters. In fact, I talked to an outfitter this year that had no idea that there was a new late elk season in his area. Many of those guys just don’t pay enough attention to the new regulations each year. Yes, they’ll know for next year, but having first crack at migratory herd in an area of heavy public land appeals to me, and there are leftovers of the tag I’m talking about.
Lastly, we usually have a few weeks between finding out what the leftover list looks like and the date the permits go on sale. So try to get a little scouting in if you can to verify that an area looks like it holds game and the public lands are accessible.
My point is that there are many factors that go into whether or not a permit is available as a leftover. Sometimes it’s a supply issue, other times it’s a demand issue. So make sure you do your due diligence when considering a leftover tag. Also, keep in mind that a limited permit isn’t always better than an unlimited one. But more often than not, we need to take advantage of leftover limited permits in order to maximize our hunting opportunities. They aren’t all marginal permits, some of them can be fairly desirable. Wyoming leftovers are on sale now, Colorado leftovers go on sale in person and over the phone August 10th. Good luck out there and do your homework.